Shanghai Cooperation Organization quarter-century: present and prospects

In 2026, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) celebrates its 25th anniversary. Created in 2001 on the basis of the "Shanghai Five" (Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan), it has become the largest regional organization in the world. Today, the SCO includes 10 member states (Russia, China, India, Pakistan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Belarus), as well as 4 observer states and 13 dialogue partners. The territory of the SCO covers about 40% of the world's population and 20% of global GDP. A quarter-century is the age of maturity. What has been achieved? What are the challenges and where is the organization heading further?

History: from combating terrorism to a global platform

The SCO began as a mechanism for resolving border disputes between China and the countries of the former USSR. After the September 11, 2001, attacks, the focus shifted to combating the "three evil forces" (terrorism, separatism, extremism). In 2004, the Regional Antiterrorist Structure (RATS) was established. In 2017, India and Pakistan were admitted, strengthening the geopolitical weight. In 2023, Iran joined, and in 2024, Belarus. Today, the SCO is a platform for discussing security, economy, energy, transport, and cultural cooperation.

Economic dimension: from projects to real actions

The economic agenda of the SCO has long been lagging behind. But in recent years, projects have been launched: the "North-South" transport corridor connecting Russia, Iran, and India (via the Caspian); the construction of a gas pipeline from Russia to China ("Sila Sibiri-2"? negotiations are ongoing); China's "Belt and Road" initiative partially overlaps with the interests of the SCO. The SCO Development Bank was established (in 2025?) but has not yet started operating. Economic successes are more modest than political ones, but there is momentum.

Security: successes and failures

The RATS has conducted hundreds of joint exercises, exchanged intelligence, and prevented several terrorist attacks. However, the Afghan issue remains: after the withdrawal of the US, the Taliban (banned in Russia) are not recognized, but the SCO is forced to engage in dialogue with them. Border conflicts between India and China, tensions between Pakistan and India — the SCO has not become a panacea, but has created channels of communication. It is important that the organization does not interfere in internal affairs.

Expansion: pros and cons

The admission of India, Pakistan, Iran, and Belarus has made the SCO more representative, but it has also complicated decision-making (consensus). Internal contradictions between India and China, Russia and the West (via Belarus) may paralyze work. However, leaders find compromises. In 2026, the admission of Turkey, Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia is being discussed — this will make the SCO a serious competitor to G7 and NATO.

Cultural and humanitarian cooperation

The SCO organizes youth forums, festivals, university exchanges. The SCO University Association has been established, and sports games are held (SCO-2025 in China). However, the cultural proximity of the peoples participating is not satisfactory. Russian and Chinese are working languages, but English is not honored.

Prospects: a global player or a regional club

The SCO may become one of the pillars of a multipolar world. To do this, it is necessary to create a free trade area (still unrealistic), develop transport infrastructure, unify legal norms, and strengthen its role in conflict resolution. Competition with BRICS (where the same participants) blurs the agenda. However, the SCO remains an important platform for meetings of leaders from "non-West."

The role of Russia and China

Russia sees the SCO as a counterweight to NATO and the EU, as well as a platform for promoting Eurasian integration (EAEU). China uses the SCO to implement the "Belt and Road" and to contain the US. The duumvirate of Moscow and Beijing is the engine of the organization, but small countries fear dominance. In 2026, the presidency will pass to Kazakhstan, which will give a chance to medium-sized countries.

Challenges: financing, bureaucracy, external pressure

The SCO is experiencing a shortage of financial tools (its own bank has not been established). The Secretariat is weak. Western sanctions against Russia and Iran complicate dollar transactions. The transition to national currencies (ruble, yuan, rupee, rial) is slow. Political pressure from the US (which considers the SCO a threat) may increase.

Twenty-five years is the age when the organization should show real results. The SCO has already become a recognized international subject. However, to become an "Asian EU," much work remains. However, its main goal is not to rush and break what works. What works in the SCO is mainly: dialogue.

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